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<https://commonsenseaustralia.com.au/?page_id=2133>
  a foaf:Document ;
  dc:title "Climate Change" ;
  dcterms:identifier 2133 ;
  dc:modified "2026-08-31T14:56:39Z"^^xsd:dateTime ;
  dc:created "2026-05-24T11:50:18Z"^^xsd:dateTime ;
  sioc:link <https://commonsenseaustralia.com.au/climate/> ;
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<p class="has-accent-color has-text-color has-link-color has-small-font-size wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph">Read Time: 4 mins</p>



<img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="840" height="420" class="gb-media-a11cf06d" alt="" title="Sunburnt 2" src="https://i0.wp.com/commonsenseaustralia.com.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/173/2026/05/Sunburnt-2.png?resize=840%2C420&#038;quality=86&#038;strip=info&#038;ssl=1" />



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Background</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians are being asked to pay more for electricity, gas, transport, housing, food and industry — all in the name of reducing emissions.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The problem is scale.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Using the IPCC’s own emissions-to-temperature calculation method, the estimated effect of current Australian emissions on global temperature over the next 100 years is about:</p>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>0.02°C</strong></h1>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That is two-hundredths of one degree.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Even the difference between Australians powering the country entirely with brown coal and powering it entirely with zero-emissions energy is only about:</p>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>0.025°C over 100 years</strong></h1>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">These are not CSA numbers.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">They are the result of applying the IPCC’s own calculation method to Australian emissions and energy use.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>See Calculations Here</strong></p>



<div>
<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />
</div>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="#sections">Jump To</a></h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="#central-question">The Central Question</a> | <a href="#contradiction">The Contradiction</a> | <a href="#climate-reality">The Australian Climate Reality</a> | <a href="#extreme-weather">Extreme Weather</a> | <a href="#adaption">Adaption Protects Australians</a> | <a href="#reliable-energy">Reliable Affordable Energy Matters</a> | <a href="#csa-position">CSA Position</a> | <a href="#sources">Page Sources</a></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h2 id="central-question" class="wp-block-heading">The Central Question</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The serious question is not whether climate changes.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The serious question is whether Australians should be made poorer for a global temperature outcome measured in hundredths of one degree.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians are being asked to:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>pay more for electricity</li>



<li>pay more for gas</li>



<li>pay more for transport</li>



<li>close industries</li>



<li>weaken manufacturing</li>



<li>electrify everything</li>



<li>and reduce living standards</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">for a measurable global temperature result so small it is effectively invisible.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That is the central issue.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h2 id="contradiction" class="wp-block-heading">The Contradiction</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians are told:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>coal is dangerous</li>



<li>gas must be phased out</li>



<li>petrol and diesel must disappear</li>



<li>electricity prices must rise</li>



<li>and households must electrify everything</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">At the same time, Australians export enormous quantities of:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>coal</li>



<li>LNG</li>



<li>iron ore</li>



<li>and energy-intensive minerals</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">to the rest of the world.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That position makes no sense.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Either:</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">coal is unacceptable and exports should stop,</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">or:</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">coal is acceptable and Australians should stop being punished for using it.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Trying to do both at once is political theatre.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians should not be told coal is too dangerous to use at home while being encouraged to export it overseas.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h2 id="climate-reality" class="wp-block-heading">The Australian Climate Reality</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australia has always been a land of droughts, floods, fires and heat.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This is not new.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Dorothy Mackellar wrote <em>My Country</em> in 1906:</p>



<img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="840" height="420" class="gb-media-ce9f94ed" alt="" title="Sunburnt 2" src="https://i0.wp.com/commonsenseaustralia.com.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/173/2026/05/Sunburnt-2.png?resize=840%2C420&#038;quality=86&#038;strip=info&#038;ssl=1" />



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>“The atmosphere has changed. Temperatures may have changed. But Australia’s basic weather reality — droughts and flooding rains — was already part of the national story more than a century ago.”</strong></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h2 id="extreme-weather" class="wp-block-heading">Extreme Weather</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians have always lived with:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>droughts</li>



<li>floods</li>



<li>bushfires</li>



<li>cyclones</li>



<li>heatwaves</li>



<li>violent rainfall</li>



<li>and long dry periods</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The strongest evidence for worsening weather is:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>more extreme heat</li>



<li>and increased fire-weather risk in some regions</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But Australia has always experienced severe weather events.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Victoria’s Black Thursday fires in 1851 burned millions of hectares long before modern industrial emissions. The Argus news paper reported that the tempertaure in Melbourne on that day reached 47°C in the shade.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Queensland’s catastrophic 1893 floods occurred long before climate policy existed.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The climate changes. It always has and always will.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The practical question is not whether Australia has extreme weather.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The practical question is how Australians should prepare for it.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h2 id="adaption" class="wp-block-heading">Adaptation Protects Australians</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians cannot control global temperature.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But Australians can control preparation.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians can:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>build dams</li>



<li>improve flood mitigation</li>



<li>strengthen bushfire preparation</li>



<li>reduce fuel loads</li>



<li>improve water security</li>



<li>harden infrastructure</li>



<li>improve emergency response</li>



<li>secure reliable energy</li>



<li>strengthen domestic industry</li>



<li>and protect supply chains</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A wealthy, energy-secure and industrially capable population will handle climate risks far better than a poorer population burdened by high energy costs and declining industry.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Adaptation works whether climate change is natural, human-influenced, or both.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That is why Australian policy should focus on adaptation, and cease trying to prevent (mitigate) Climate Change.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h2 id="reliable-energy" class="wp-block-heading">Reliable Affordable Energy Matters</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians rely on:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>diesel</li>



<li>gas</li>



<li>coal</li>



<li>electricity</li>



<li>mining</li>



<li>transport</li>



<li>farming</li>



<li>steel</li>



<li>cement</li>



<li>construction</li>



<li>manufacturing</li>



<li>and food production</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Modern living standards depend on affordable reliable energy.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If Australians deliberately make energy expensive:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>living costs rise</li>



<li>industries close</li>



<li>jobs disappear</li>



<li>manufacturing moves overseas</li>



<li>households become poorer</li>



<li>and the nation becomes weaker</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Meanwhile global emissions continue rising anyway, Australians can&#8217;t make a material difference.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That is self-inflicted economic damage does not make sense!</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h2 id="csa-position" class="wp-block-heading">CSA Position</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">CSA supports:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>practical adaptation</li>



<li>reliable affordable energy</li>



<li>strong industry</li>



<li>domestic fuel security</li>



<li>honest discussion based on measurable outcomes</li>



<li>and policies that protect Australians</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">CSA does not support:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>symbolic sacrifice</li>



<li>net zero emission policies</li>



<li>current Carbon Credit Law</li>



<li>self-inflicted energy poverty</li>



<li>policies that weaken Australian industry</li>



<li>or climate policies whose measurable temperature effect is close to zero</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australians should not be made poorer for a global temperature outcome measured in hundredths of one degree.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Australia’s task is to protect Australians.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h2 id="sources" class="wp-block-heading">Sources</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This page was developed after reviewing a wide set of climate, energy, emissions, productivity and historical weather sources. Not all sources reviewed were used in the final page wording. CSA lists them here so readers can see the broader research trail and judge the reasoning for themselves.</p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">IPCC / climate calculation method</h4>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>IPCC AR6 — Working Group I / Summary for Policymakers</strong><br>Used for the relationship between cumulative CO₂ emissions and temperature increase — the TCRE method.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Key figure used:</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">approximately <strong>0.45°C per 1,000 GtCO₂</strong>, likely range <strong>0.27°C to 0.63°C</strong></p>
</blockquote>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Australia’s estimated 0.02°C effect over 100 years</li>



<li>brown coal vs zero-emissions comparison</li>



<li>coal and gas export temperature calculation</li>



<li>distinction between warming, extreme heat and broader extreme weather claims</li>
</ul>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Australian emissions and energy data</h4>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water — National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Updates</strong><br>Referenced for current Australian emissions figures, including estimates around:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>446 Mt CO₂-e</strong></li>



<li>later updated around <strong>436 Mt CO₂-e</strong></li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Used for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>current Australian domestic emissions</li>



<li>100-year emissions projection</li>



<li>net zero by 2050 comparison</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Australian Energy Statistics — energy consumption</strong><br>Referenced for Australia’s total energy consumption:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>approximately <strong>5,977 PJ in 2023–24</strong></li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Used for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>all-brown-coal energy scenario</li>



<li>zero-emissions energy scenario</li>



<li>estimating the temperature difference between those two extremes</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>National Greenhouse Accounts Factors</strong><br>Referenced for brown coal emissions intensity assumptions, roughly:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>94 kg CO₂-e per GJ</strong></li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Used for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>estimating emissions if all Australian energy came from brown coal</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Australian Energy Statistics — energy trade / exports</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Australian coal exports</li>



<li>LNG exports</li>



<li>share of coal and gas production exported</li>



<li>total exported energy</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Used for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>coal and gas export temperature calculation</li>



<li>contradiction between domestic coal restrictions and coal exports</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Department of Industry, Science and Resources — Resources and Energy Quarterly</strong><br>Referenced for approximate coal and LNG export volumes, including:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>thermal coal exports</li>



<li>metallurgical coal exports</li>



<li>LNG exports</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Used for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>estimating the gross temperature effect if Australian coal and gas exports stopped and were not replaced</li>
</ul>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bureau of Meteorology / CSIRO climate and weather material</h4>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bureau of Meteorology — State of the Climate / Australia’s changing climate</strong><br>Referenced for official statements about:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Australian warming since 1910</li>



<li>increased extreme heat events</li>



<li>fire weather trends</li>



<li>rainfall and climate trends</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bureau of Meteorology — rainfall records and extreme records</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>historical rainfall extremes</li>



<li>old rainfall records</li>



<li>evidence that Australia has always had extreme rainfall variability</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Examples discussed:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Queensland 1893 rainfall/flooding</li>



<li>historical intense rainfall records</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bureau of Meteorology — rainfall trend maps</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>regional rainfall differences</li>



<li>the fact that rainfall trend maps change depending on start date</li>



<li>southern Australia drying trends</li>



<li>high natural rainfall variability</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Bureau of Meteorology / CSIRO — State of the Climate 2024</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>extreme heat</li>



<li>fire weather</li>



<li>regional climate trends</li>



<li>official Australian climate framing</li>
</ul>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Extreme weather / drought / fire material</h4>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>IPCC AR6 — Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>stronger evidence for extreme heat</li>



<li>heavy rainfall intensity</li>



<li>mixed evidence for droughts, floods and cyclone frequency</li>



<li>distinction between event categories</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub</strong><br>Referenced for historical bushfire material, especially:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Black Thursday, Victoria, 1851</strong></li>



<li>reported extreme heat and fire conditions</li>



<li>historical scale of catastrophic bushfires</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Forest Fire Management Victoria / Victorian historical bushfire records</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Black Thursday 1851</li>



<li>area burned</li>



<li>historical context for Australian bushfire risk</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Climate Extremes / drought briefing material</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>drought evidence being more regional and less uniform than heat evidence</li>



<li>caution around broad drought claims</li>
</ul>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Historical and cultural reference</h4>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Dorothy Mackellar — <em>My Country</em>, 1906</strong><br>Referenced for the verse:</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">I love my sunburnt country,<br>A land of sweeping plains,<br>Of ragged mountain ranges,<br>Of droughts and flooding rains.</p>
</blockquote>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Used for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>the “Has anything really changed?” climate image</li>



<li>the argument that droughts, floods and harsh climate are not new to Australia</li>
</ul>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">GDP, productivity and energy-cost context sources referenced earlier in the chat</h4>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">These were not used directly in the final climate page, but were part of the argument development around energy costs, productivity and living standards.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>World Bank / Our World in Data — GDP per capita data</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>UK real GDP per capita since 1970</li>



<li>comparison of 1970–2000 vs 2000–2024 growth</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>FRED / World Bank population and GDP series</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>rebuilding UK GDP per capita from nominal GDP, population and inflation adjustment</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>ABS — Australian National Accounts</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Australian GDP per capita trends</li>



<li>recent weak GDP per capita outcomes</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Reserve Bank of Australia — productivity and economic growth material</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>productivity slowdown</li>



<li>distinction between nominal and real GDP</li>



<li>productivity as a driver of living standards</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Productivity Commission — productivity insights / bulletins</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>weak productivity growth</li>



<li>hours worked rising faster than output</li>



<li>Australia’s recent productivity concerns</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>UK Office for Budget Responsibility</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>UK productivity slowdown after the Global Financial Crisis</li>



<li>productivity puzzle</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>UK Office for National Statistics</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>UK industrial electricity prices</li>



<li>energy costs affecting businesses</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Climate Change Authority material on Renewable Energy Target costs</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>RET-related system costs</li>



<li>effect of emissions-reduction policy on energy costs</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Clean Energy Regulator — Renewable Energy Target</strong><br>Referenced for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>RET beginning in 2001</li>



<li>purpose of reducing emissions and increasing renewable electricity generation</li>



<li>reported emissions reduction from the RET</li>
</ul>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
"""^^rdf:XMLLiteral ;
  sioc:content """
Read Time: 4 mins







Background



Australians are being asked to pay more for electricity, gas, transport, housing, food and industry — all in the name of reducing emissions.



The problem is scale.



Using the IPCC’s own emissions-to-temperature calculation method, the estimated effect of current Australian emissions on global temperature over the next 100 years is about:



0.02°C



That is two-hundredths of one degree.



Even the difference between Australians powering the country entirely with brown coal and powering it entirely with zero-emissions energy is only about:



0.025°C over 100 years



These are not CSA numbers.



They are the result of applying the IPCC’s own calculation method to Australian emissions and energy use.



See Calculations Here









Jump To



The Central Question | The Contradiction | The Australian Climate Reality | Extreme Weather | Adaption Protects Australians | Reliable Affordable Energy Matters | CSA Position | Page Sources







The Central Question



The serious question is not whether climate changes.



The serious question is whether Australians should be made poorer for a global temperature outcome measured in hundredths of one degree.



Australians are being asked to:




pay more for electricity



pay more for gas



pay more for transport



close industries



weaken manufacturing



electrify everything



and reduce living standards




for a measurable global temperature result so small it is effectively invisible.



That is the central issue.







The Contradiction



Australians are told:




coal is dangerous



gas must be phased out



petrol and diesel must disappear



electricity prices must rise



and households must electrify everything




At the same time, Australians export enormous quantities of:




coal



LNG



iron ore



and energy-intensive minerals




to the rest of the world.



That position makes no sense.



Either:



coal is unacceptable and exports should stop,



or:



coal is acceptable and Australians should stop being punished for using it.



Trying to do both at once is political theatre.



Australians should not be told coal is too dangerous to use at home while being encouraged to export it overseas.







The Australian Climate Reality



Australia has always been a land of droughts, floods, fires and heat.



This is not new.



Dorothy Mackellar wrote My Country in 1906:







“The atmosphere has changed. Temperatures may have changed. But Australia’s basic weather reality — droughts and flooding rains — was already part of the national story more than a century ago.”







Extreme Weather



Australians have always lived with:




droughts



floods



bushfires



cyclones



heatwaves



violent rainfall



and long dry periods




The strongest evidence for worsening weather is:




more extreme heat



and increased fire-weather risk in some regions




But Australia has always experienced severe weather events.



Victoria’s Black Thursday fires in 1851 burned millions of hectares long before modern industrial emissions. The Argus news paper reported that the tempertaure in Melbourne on that day reached 47°C in the shade.



Queensland’s catastrophic 1893 floods occurred long before climate policy existed.



The climate changes. It always has and always will.



The practical question is not whether Australia has extreme weather.



The practical question is how Australians should prepare for it.







Adaptation Protects Australians



Australians cannot control global temperature.



But Australians can control preparation.



Australians can:




build dams



improve flood mitigation



strengthen bushfire preparation



reduce fuel loads



improve water security



harden infrastructure



improve emergency response



secure reliable energy



strengthen domestic industry



and protect supply chains




A wealthy, energy-secure and industrially capable population will handle climate risks far better than a poorer population burdened by high energy costs and declining industry.



Adaptation works whether climate change is natural, human-influenced, or both.



That is why Australian policy should focus on adaptation, and cease trying to prevent (mitigate) Climate Change.







Reliable Affordable Energy Matters



Australians rely on:




diesel



gas



coal



electricity



mining



transport



farming



steel



cement



construction



manufacturing



and food production




Modern living standards depend on affordable reliable energy.



If Australians deliberately make energy expensive:




living costs rise



industries close



jobs disappear



manufacturing moves overseas



households become poorer



and the nation becomes weaker




Meanwhile global emissions continue rising anyway, Australians can&#8217;t make a material difference.



That is self-inflicted economic damage does not make sense!







CSA Position



CSA supports:




practical adaptation



reliable affordable energy



strong industry



domestic fuel security



honest discussion based on measurable outcomes



and policies that protect Australians




CSA does not support:




symbolic sacrifice



net zero emission policies



current Carbon Credit Law



self-inflicted energy poverty



policies that weaken Australian industry



or climate policies whose measurable temperature effect is close to zero




Australians should not be made poorer for a global temperature outcome measured in hundredths of one degree.



Australia’s task is to protect Australians.







Sources



This page was developed after reviewing a wide set of climate, energy, emissions, productivity and historical weather sources. Not all sources reviewed were used in the final page wording. CSA lists them here so readers can see the broader research trail and judge the reasoning for themselves.



IPCC / climate calculation method



IPCC AR6 — Working Group I / Summary for PolicymakersUsed for the relationship between cumulative CO₂ emissions and temperature increase — the TCRE method.



Key figure used:




approximately 0.45°C per 1,000 GtCO₂, likely range 0.27°C to 0.63°C




Referenced for:




Australia’s estimated 0.02°C effect over 100 years



brown coal vs zero-emissions comparison



coal and gas export temperature calculation



distinction between warming, extreme heat and broader extreme weather claims








Australian emissions and energy data



Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water — National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly UpdatesReferenced for current Australian emissions figures, including estimates around:




446 Mt CO₂-e



later updated around 436 Mt CO₂-e




Used for:




current Australian domestic emissions



100-year emissions projection



net zero by 2050 comparison




Australian Energy Statistics — energy consumptionReferenced for Australia’s total energy consumption:




approximately 5,977 PJ in 2023–24




Used for:




all-brown-coal energy scenario



zero-emissions energy scenario



estimating the temperature difference between those two extremes




National Greenhouse Accounts FactorsReferenced for brown coal emissions intensity assumptions, roughly:




94 kg CO₂-e per GJ




Used for:




estimating emissions if all Australian energy came from brown coal




Australian Energy Statistics — energy trade / exportsReferenced for:




Australian coal exports



LNG exports



share of coal and gas production exported



total exported energy




Used for:




coal and gas export temperature calculation



contradiction between domestic coal restrictions and coal exports




Department of Industry, Science and Resources — Resources and Energy QuarterlyReferenced for approximate coal and LNG export volumes, including:




thermal coal exports



metallurgical coal exports



LNG exports




Used for:




estimating the gross temperature effect if Australian coal and gas exports stopped and were not replaced








Bureau of Meteorology / CSIRO climate and weather material



Bureau of Meteorology — State of the Climate / Australia’s changing climateReferenced for official statements about:




Australian warming since 1910



increased extreme heat events



fire weather trends



rainfall and climate trends




Bureau of Meteorology — rainfall records and extreme recordsReferenced for:




historical rainfall extremes



old rainfall records



evidence that Australia has always had extreme rainfall variability




Examples discussed:




Queensland 1893 rainfall/flooding



historical intense rainfall records




Bureau of Meteorology — rainfall trend mapsReferenced for:




regional rainfall differences



the fact that rainfall trend maps change depending on start date



southern Australia drying trends



high natural rainfall variability




Bureau of Meteorology / CSIRO — State of the Climate 2024Referenced for:




extreme heat



fire weather



regional climate trends



official Australian climate framing








Extreme weather / drought / fire material



IPCC AR6 — Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme EventsReferenced for:




stronger evidence for extreme heat



heavy rainfall intensity



mixed evidence for droughts, floods and cyclone frequency



distinction between event categories




Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge HubReferenced for historical bushfire material, especially:




Black Thursday, Victoria, 1851



reported extreme heat and fire conditions



historical scale of catastrophic bushfires




Forest Fire Management Victoria / Victorian historical bushfire recordsReferenced for:




Black Thursday 1851



area burned



historical context for Australian bushfire risk




Climate Extremes / drought briefing materialReferenced for:




drought evidence being more regional and less uniform than heat evidence



caution around broad drought claims








Historical and cultural reference



Dorothy Mackellar — My Country, 1906Referenced for the verse:




I love my sunburnt country,A land of sweeping plains,Of ragged mountain ranges,Of droughts and flooding rains.




Used for:




the “Has anything really changed?” climate image



the argument that droughts, floods and harsh climate are not new to Australia








GDP, productivity and energy-cost context sources referenced earlier in the chat



These were not used directly in the final climate page, but were part of the argument development around energy costs, productivity and living standards.



World Bank / Our World in Data — GDP per capita dataReferenced for:




UK real GDP per capita since 1970



comparison of 1970–2000 vs 2000–2024 growth




FRED / World Bank population and GDP seriesReferenced for:




rebuilding UK GDP per capita from nominal GDP, population and inflation adjustment




ABS — Australian National AccountsReferenced for:




Australian GDP per capita trends



recent weak GDP per capita outcomes




Reserve Bank of Australia — productivity and economic growth materialReferenced for:




productivity slowdown



distinction between nominal and real GDP



productivity as a driver of living standards




Productivity Commission — productivity insights / bulletinsReferenced for:




weak productivity growth



hours worked rising faster than output



Australia’s recent productivity concerns




UK Office for Budget ResponsibilityReferenced for:




UK productivity slowdown after the Global Financial Crisis



productivity puzzle




UK Office for National StatisticsReferenced for:




UK industrial electricity prices



energy costs affecting businesses




Climate Change Authority material on Renewable Energy Target costsReferenced for:




RET-related system costs



effect of emissions-reduction policy on energy costs




Clean Energy Regulator — Renewable Energy TargetReferenced for:




RET beginning in 2001



purpose of reducing emissions and increasing renewable electricity generation



reported emissions reduction from the RET





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