Read Time: 4 mins

Background

Australians are being asked to pay more for electricity, gas, transport, housing, food and industry — all in the name of reducing emissions.

The problem is scale.

Using the IPCC’s own emissions-to-temperature calculation method, the estimated effect of current Australian emissions on global temperature over the next 100 years is about:

0.02°C

That is two-hundredths of one degree.

Even the difference between Australians powering the country entirely with brown coal and powering it entirely with zero-emissions energy is only about:

0.025°C over 100 years

These are not CSA numbers.

They are the result of applying the IPCC’s own calculation method to Australian emissions and energy use.

See Calculations Here

Jump To

The Central Question | The Contradiction | The Australian Climate Reality | Extreme Weather | Adaption Protects Australians | Reliable Affordable Energy Matters | CSA Position | Page Sources

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The Central Question

The serious question is not whether climate changes.

The serious question is whether Australians should be made poorer for a global temperature outcome measured in hundredths of one degree.

Australians are being asked to:

• pay more for electricity
• pay more for gas
• pay more for transport
• close industries
• weaken manufacturing
• electrify everything
• and reduce living standards

for a measurable global temperature result so small it is effectively invisible.

That is the central issue.

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The Contradiction

Australians are told:

• coal is dangerous
• gas must be phased out
• petrol and diesel must disappear
• electricity prices must rise
• and households must electrify everything

At the same time, Australians export enormous quantities of:

• coal
• LNG
• iron ore
• and energy-intensive minerals

to the rest of the world.

That position makes no sense.

Either:

coal is unacceptable and exports should stop,

or:

coal is acceptable and Australians should stop being punished for using it.

Trying to do both at once is political theatre.

Australians should not be told coal is too dangerous to use at home while being encouraged to export it overseas.

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The Australian Climate Reality

Australia has always been a land of droughts, floods, fires and heat.

This is not new.

Dorothy Mackellar wrote My Country in 1906:

“The atmosphere has changed. Temperatures may have changed. But Australia’s basic weather reality — droughts and flooding rains — was already part of the national story more than a century ago.”

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Extreme Weather

Australians have always lived with:

• droughts
• floods
• bushfires
• cyclones
• heatwaves
• violent rainfall
• and long dry periods

The strongest evidence for worsening weather is:

• more extreme heat
• and increased fire-weather risk in some regions

But Australia has always experienced severe weather events.

Victoria’s Black Thursday fires in 1851 burned millions of hectares long before modern industrial emissions. The Argus news paper reported that the tempertaure in Melbourne on that day reached 47°C in the shade.

Queensland’s catastrophic 1893 floods occurred long before climate policy existed.

The climate changes. It always has and always will.

The practical question is not whether Australia has extreme weather.

The practical question is how Australians should prepare for it.

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Adaptation Protects Australians

Australians cannot control global temperature.

But Australians can control preparation.

Australians can:

• build dams
• improve flood mitigation
• strengthen bushfire preparation
• reduce fuel loads
• improve water security
• harden infrastructure
• improve emergency response
• secure reliable energy
• strengthen domestic industry
• and protect supply chains

A wealthy, energy-secure and industrially capable population will handle climate risks far better than a poorer population burdened by high energy costs and declining industry.

Adaptation works whether climate change is natural, human-influenced, or both.

That is why Australian policy should focus on adaptation, and cease trying to prevent (mitigate) Climate Change.

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Reliable Affordable Energy Matters

Australians rely on:

• diesel
• gas
• coal
• electricity
• mining
• transport
• farming
• steel
• cement
• construction
• manufacturing
• and food production

Modern living standards depend on affordable reliable energy.

If Australians deliberately make energy expensive:

• living costs rise
• industries close
• jobs disappear
• manufacturing moves overseas
• households become poorer
• and the nation becomes weaker

Meanwhile global emissions continue rising anyway, Australians can’t make a material difference.

That is self-inflicted economic damage does not make sense!

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CSA Position

CSA supports:

• practical adaptation
• reliable affordable energy
• strong industry
• domestic fuel security
• honest discussion based on measurable outcomes
• and policies that protect Australians

CSA does not support:

• symbolic sacrifice
• net zero emission policies
• current Carbon Credit Law
• self-inflicted energy poverty
• policies that weaken Australian industry
• or climate policies whose measurable temperature effect is close to zero

Australians should not be made poorer for a global temperature outcome measured in hundredths of one degree.

Australia’s task is to protect Australians.

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Sources

This page was developed after reviewing a wide set of climate, energy, emissions, productivity and historical weather sources. Not all sources reviewed were used in the final page wording. CSA lists them here so readers can see the broader research trail and judge the reasoning for themselves.

IPCC / climate calculation method

IPCC AR6 — Working Group I / Summary for Policymakers
Used for the relationship between cumulative CO₂ emissions and temperature increase — the TCRE method.

Key figure used:

approximately 0.45°C per 1,000 GtCO₂, likely range 0.27°C to 0.63°C

Referenced for:

• Australia’s estimated 0.02°C effect over 100 years
• brown coal vs zero-emissions comparison
• coal and gas export temperature calculation
• distinction between warming, extreme heat and broader extreme weather claims

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Australian emissions and energy data

Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water — National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Updates
Referenced for current Australian emissions figures, including estimates around:

• 446 Mt CO₂-e
• later updated around 436 Mt CO₂-e

Used for:

• current Australian domestic emissions
• 100-year emissions projection
• net zero by 2050 comparison

Australian Energy Statistics — energy consumption
Referenced for Australia’s total energy consumption:

• approximately 5,977 PJ in 2023–24

Used for:

• all-brown-coal energy scenario
• zero-emissions energy scenario
• estimating the temperature difference between those two extremes

National Greenhouse Accounts Factors
Referenced for brown coal emissions intensity assumptions, roughly:

• 94 kg CO₂-e per GJ

Used for:

• estimating emissions if all Australian energy came from brown coal

Australian Energy Statistics — energy trade / exports
Referenced for:

• Australian coal exports
• LNG exports
• share of coal and gas production exported
• total exported energy

Used for:

• coal and gas export temperature calculation
• contradiction between domestic coal restrictions and coal exports

Department of Industry, Science and Resources — Resources and Energy Quarterly
Referenced for approximate coal and LNG export volumes, including:

• thermal coal exports
• metallurgical coal exports
• LNG exports

Used for:

• estimating the gross temperature effect if Australian coal and gas exports stopped and were not replaced

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Bureau of Meteorology / CSIRO climate and weather material

Bureau of Meteorology — State of the Climate / Australia’s changing climate
Referenced for official statements about:

• Australian warming since 1910
• increased extreme heat events
• fire weather trends
• rainfall and climate trends

Bureau of Meteorology — rainfall records and extreme records
Referenced for:

• historical rainfall extremes
• old rainfall records
• evidence that Australia has always had extreme rainfall variability

Examples discussed:

• Queensland 1893 rainfall/flooding
• historical intense rainfall records

Bureau of Meteorology — rainfall trend maps
Referenced for:

• regional rainfall differences
• the fact that rainfall trend maps change depending on start date
• southern Australia drying trends
• high natural rainfall variability

Bureau of Meteorology / CSIRO — State of the Climate 2024
Referenced for:

• extreme heat
• fire weather
• regional climate trends
• official Australian climate framing

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Extreme weather / drought / fire material

IPCC AR6 — Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events
Referenced for:

• stronger evidence for extreme heat
• heavy rainfall intensity
• mixed evidence for droughts, floods and cyclone frequency
• distinction between event categories

Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub
Referenced for historical bushfire material, especially:

• Black Thursday, Victoria, 1851
• reported extreme heat and fire conditions
• historical scale of catastrophic bushfires

Forest Fire Management Victoria / Victorian historical bushfire records
Referenced for:

• Black Thursday 1851
• area burned
• historical context for Australian bushfire risk

Climate Extremes / drought briefing material
Referenced for:

• drought evidence being more regional and less uniform than heat evidence
• caution around broad drought claims

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Historical and cultural reference

Dorothy Mackellar — My Country, 1906
Referenced for the verse:

I love my sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.

Used for:

• the “Has anything really changed?” climate image
• the argument that droughts, floods and harsh climate are not new to Australia

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GDP, productivity and energy-cost context sources referenced earlier in the chat

These were not used directly in the final climate page, but were part of the argument development around energy costs, productivity and living standards.

World Bank / Our World in Data — GDP per capita data
Referenced for:

• UK real GDP per capita since 1970
• comparison of 1970–2000 vs 2000–2024 growth

FRED / World Bank population and GDP series
Referenced for:

• rebuilding UK GDP per capita from nominal GDP, population and inflation adjustment

ABS — Australian National Accounts
Referenced for:

• Australian GDP per capita trends
• recent weak GDP per capita outcomes

Reserve Bank of Australia — productivity and economic growth material
Referenced for:

• productivity slowdown
• distinction between nominal and real GDP
• productivity as a driver of living standards

Productivity Commission — productivity insights / bulletins
Referenced for:

• weak productivity growth
• hours worked rising faster than output
• Australia’s recent productivity concerns

UK Office for Budget Responsibility
Referenced for:

• UK productivity slowdown after the Global Financial Crisis
• productivity puzzle

UK Office for National Statistics
Referenced for:

• UK industrial electricity prices
• energy costs affecting businesses

Climate Change Authority material on Renewable Energy Target costs
Referenced for:

• RET-related system costs
• effect of emissions-reduction policy on energy costs

Clean Energy Regulator — Renewable Energy Target
Referenced for:

• RET beginning in 2001
• purpose of reducing emissions and increasing renewable electricity generation
• reported emissions reduction from the RET